IndividualContributor

There's a bad (crescent) moon arisin' but it ain't werewolves that are coming out. Its Iranian nukes, and they may be coming to a city near you.

We are headed for a showdown in the middle east over Iranian nuclear capabilities. And the show won't be over until the fat lady sings. In this case, the fat lady is American military might and it will sing, one way or the other.

Here's my best and worst case scenarios:

Best case scenario: U.S. invades Iran in the next 9 months. Four thousand U.S. troops die and 40,000 Iranians die. Iran's nuclear facilities are destroyed. The U.S. leaves and lets those left in Iran put together pieces in whatever manner they want.

Worst case scenario: U.S. does not invade Iran in next 9 months. Iran starts war by sending a nuclear warhead into downtown Tel Aviv or a dirty bomb explodes in New York. Millions are dead or dying from radiation sicknesses. A nuclear exchange ensues. Fifty million Muslims in the middle east die. U.S. spends next 50 years and $2 trillion rebuilding middle east.

Unfortunately, I think the worst case scenario is more likely.